Ten years from now

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Eversheds, one of a small handful of really innovative large law firms out there (most of them in London), has released a report predicting the future of the legal profession in 2018. (Hat tip to Legal Blog Watch.) The linked press release provides the highlight: more commoditization of legal work, more fee pressures from clients, another stay of execution for the billable hour, and the continued reality that working in a very large law firm takes up most of your time. (Fill out this form for a copy.)

I tend to agree with Carolyn at LBW that this forecast doesn’t seem to differ a whole lot from the legal world in 2008. And I’m a little amused that the “Law Firm of the 21st Century,” as Eversheds bills it, is located in 2018. If you took a 1918 partnership as the model for 20st-century law firms, you’d find quite a lot of variation from one end of the century to the other. (Although, admittedly, not quite as much as you might like.) Still, it’s interesting that Eversheds took on the trouble and expense of this project — it’s not the kind of thing you do for fun. If, as I expect, it was part of a planning exercise for the firm’s near- and mid-term future, it’s not a bad idea.

I try not to predict the future if I can help it — whenever I’ve done so in the past, I usually wind up looking ridiculous, and so do most people who try to play Nostradamus. As Ron points out in the comments at LBW, there are always completely unforeseeable trends that emerge on a global scale and skew predictions completely off course. Just as an example, check out this video from 1967 that predicts, with remarkable prescience, high-tech shopping in 1999, but assumes gender roles and interior decorating will have changed not an iota.

So I’ll only make one prediction based on the Eversheds report, specifically on the sharp disagreement between lawyers and clients about the sustainability of legal costs (clients think it’s a problem, lawyers don’t). No disconnect between purchasers and vendors on any important matter, especially regarding costs, goes unresolved for very long. Lawyers who don’t take clients’ concerns seriously, especially regarding costs, aren’t going to enjoy 2018 very much.

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